Report on the public lecture about Ukraine on the topic “Behavioral Pattern of Ukrainian Refugees in Germany in the Context of their Intentions to stay and return" given by Prof. Dr. Tetyana Panchenko at WBZ
We continue publishing reports on the series of public lectures titled "Ukraine Between History and Modernity: War Challenges, Historical Narratives, and a Conflict of Interpretations". The lecture by Prof. Dr. Tetyana Panchenko “Behavioral Pattern of Ukrainian Refugees in Germany in the Context of their Intentions to stay and return”, which took place on 7th November 2024, was the third one of the series. The project was funded by the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD). Our partner in the implementation of this project is the German Studies Center (ZDS) at Peking University, FU Berlin.
Lecturer Dr. Tetyana Panchenko is a professor of political science at the Karazin Kharkiv National University. In 2022-2024 she was a research specialist of ifo Center for international comparison and migration research, ifo Institute, Munich, where she worked at the research project “Adaptation and Integration Strategies of Refugees from Ukraine in Germany: Between Work and Social Assistance”, the results of which along with her further researches, were presented at Willy Brandt Center.
Since the lecturer Tetyana Panchenko is from Kharkiv—a city where civilians’ homes and infrastructure are constantly being shelled by Russia, with yet another brutal attack occurring on the eve of the lecture—the opening remarks were dedicated to Kharkiv. The scientific coordinator of the project, Prof. Oksana Danylenko, not only emphasized the importance of remembering that Russia’s war against Ukraine is ongoing, but also described the recent events of targeting her hometown:
“Kharkiv has many architectural monuments, that are being destroyed by Russia now. One of them is a constructivist monument called “Derzhprom”. And about two weeks ago, this emblematic building, which is located just 100 meters from Karazin Kharkiv University, was attacked. I would like to see a reaction to this from the media in the EU and other countries. But there was practically no information about this in the European media. As well as there was practically no mention that the next evening a Russian missile hit an ordinary apartment building where people were living. Some of them were injured, and some died. Children are also being killed. And Kharkiv residents, like the residents of other cities who suffer from Russian attacks and missile strikes, just want to live in their Ukrainian city, in their homes. Many of them were refugees and later returned from Germany, Poland and other countries or from other regions of Ukraine and are living there now. The war, unfortunately, continues, it is impossible to forget”.
The photo by Halyna Kuts was taken during an important Ukrainian holiday - the Unity Day of Ukraine on 22 Jan. 2025, which symbolizes the unification of our country. In the background is the Derzhprom, which has already been partially restored after the Russian attacks in autumn 2024.
In her report, Professor Tetyana Panchenko shared the results of her researches on the relevant topic – Ukrainian refugees and their return. Based on the obtained research results (5 waves of online surveys with participation of 1000 to 2000 respondents for each wave were conducted from March 2022 to January 2024), Tetyana Panchenko presented three main categories of the Ukrainian refugees’ intentions: potential returnees, those willing to stay and those undecided. According to the survey results, as of 2023 each of these groups comprised around a third of refugees from Ukraine. However, the group of those who want to stay is growing over time, while those who want to return are becoming less.
The behavioural models of Ukrainian refugees developed on the data of qualitative in-depth interviews, show that the intention to stay in Germany is not always associated with high integration potential, including labour market integration, and that the intention to return to Ukraine does not always indicate a weak motivation to integrate. The greatest potential for social integration and activity in the labour market (including unskilled work) is among those who have not yet decided on their future plans, are “looking for their place in life” and are open to new opportunities. The ones who are “ready to have a new start in Germany” (i.e. to fulfil the objective requirements for a self-determined life in Germany) mainly learn the language, build social networks and improve their qualifications in order to find a decent job in the future. Those who are actively expecting and are motivated to return to Ukraine, show a similar behaviour. They want to invest the knowledge and experience gained in Germany in their own development and the reconstruction of Ukraine.
The proposed typology demonstrates the need to adopt different integration measures in relation to different groups of Ukrainian refugees, as well as targeting at the return policy.
The discussion after presentation was very engaging and was brilliantly moderated by Prof. Sören Brinkmann.
This time there was active participation from the students who asked a wide range of questions, demonstrating the diversity of their interests. Moreover, they didn’t only concern the sociological research data but there were also questions of a socio-political nature, such as:
“Is there a general opinion or fear regarding Donald Trump’s re-election in the USA?” (Elmar Goekel, TU Dresden, Erasmus Student at WBZ)
“What is Ukraine’s policy regarding the possible return of refugees? Are there any plans to provide incentives for their return?” (Focko Krautztkamp, University of Mainz, Erasmus Student at WBZ)
Tetyana Panchenko gave the following answer to the last of the mentioned questions: “Ukraine's policy on the return of refugees is in the process of development. Until the war is over, there is no hope of a significant return of refugees, but nowadays it is certainly worth preparing the ground for this, considering the incentives and maintaining motivation to return. At the current stage, the key direction should be to support ties with Ukraine, preserve the Ukrainian identity, especially among children and young people who have been studying at foreign schools and other educational institutions for the third year”.
The sociologists from the Institute of Sociology of the University of Wrocław Prof. Kamilla Dolińska and Prof. Julita Makaro also participated in the discussion at the Willy Brandt Center for German and European Studies (WBZ). They are engaged in qualitative sociological research on forced migrants from Ukraine, although not in Germany but in Poland. Therefore, their interest in the presentation was also driven by the search for comparative perspectives.
There were also active participants in Zoom. Below you can find some of the questions asked during the discussion, along with Tatiana Panchenko’s responses.
Dr. Julia Kobzar (Freie Universität Berlin, ZDS Peking): “Thank you for your insightful presentation. In the context of your research, have you conducted any surveys or collected data regarding the extent of participation by Ukrainian refugees in Germany at public demonstrations or initiatives supporting Ukraine, the Ukrainian military, and civilians who have remained in Ukraine?”.
Prof. Tetyana Panchenko: “Such data were not collected within the quantitative online surveys, but questions about participation in public demonstrations or initiatives in support of Ukraine were asked in qualitative interviews. The data obtained do not provide an exact answer about the scale of these phenomena, but they do allow us to say that donations are mentioned by almost all the interviewees. They are sometimes perceived as the only possible form of support for Ukraine from abroad. Not all theinterviewees reported participation in public demonstrations”.
Dr. Svitlana Babenko (Malmo University, Sweden): “Thank you for your extensive and thought-provoking research and presentation. How do the skills and careers/professions in Ukraine impact the intention to return or to work remotely for Ukraine? Also, do you have any data on involvement in volunteering for Ukraine, supporting families that stayed and donating to support Ukrainian army, volunteers in Ukraine, etc.? Are the connections strengthening or weakening with time?”
Prof. Tetyana Panchenko “A career in Ukraine influences the intention to return, which is confirmed by both quantitative and qualitative data. Highly qualified Ukrainians, whose language skills do not allow them to work in their specialty in Germany, are often not ready to downgrade their qualifications and return to Ukraine or expect to return in the future. This is confirmed by the fact that the self-selection among Ukrainian refugees by education and social status becomes less pronounced over time. Regarding volunteering, such questions were not asked in the online surveys. Participants in the qualitative study mostly reported on volunteering by relatives and friends in Ukraine. Their own experiences were mostly related to financial support of the army, relatives and friends in Ukraine”.
Dr. Iryna Lapshyna (Osnabruck University/Germany), Ukrainian Catholic University/Ukraine): ”The proposed typology of adaptation models does not say about transnationalism and transnational practices”.
Prof. Tetyana Panchenko: “Indeed, the proposed typology was developed on the basis of the data collected in the first months of the war, and transnational models of adaptation had not yet manifested themselves then. Willingness to live, work and build and maintain social networks between the host and home country began to develop over time. After processing repeated interviews, transmigration strategies will probably be revealed among those who plan to return to Ukraine or have not decided yet”.
The presentation of Tetyana Panchenko and the subsequent discussion allowed both online and offline attendees—representatives of various countries, including Polish and German students, doctoral candidates, and scholars—not only to familiarise themselves with the Ukrainian experts’ views of the Ukrainian issues along with their specific discourse and research focus; they also had the opportunity to learn aboutthe author’s key research findings on Ukrainian migration.
Below, we provide the link to one of the lecturer’s latest publications on forced migrants from Ukraine:
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13511610.2025.2467220
And, for comparison, here is an earlier publication on the migration of highly qualified Ukrainian professionals to Germany and Poland before the full-scale war:
https://www.kas.de/en/web/ukraine/single-title/-/content/highly-qualified-ukrainian-specialist-in-germany-and-poland
The Report was prepared by the scientific coordinator of the project Prof. Oksana Danylenko in co-authorship with Prof. Tetyana Panchenko
